As the world reflects on another FIFA World Cup, development scholar Anirudh Krishna offers a thought-provoking perspective on what separates football’s most successful nations from the rest. His forthcoming book, Why Kenyans Win Marathons and Estonians Build Unicorns, releasing in India in the last week of July, argues that sustained sporting excellence is built not on talent alone but on long-term investments in opportunity.

Krishna challenges the conventional belief that international football success is driven by population size, economic strength or luck. Instead, he contends that countries that consistently perform on the global stage have spent decades creating comprehensive football ecosystems that nurture talent at every level.

According to the book, the world’s leading football nations have developed robust systems comprising youth academies, school and club competitions, coaching pathways, scouting networks, professional leagues, sports science infrastructure, community support, visible role models and viable careers beyond elite playing. These interconnected systems not only produce world-class footballers but also create opportunities for coaches, trainers, analysts, referees, administrators and other sports professionals, ensuring long-term success.

Drawing on more than a decade of research across countries including Kenya, Jamaica, Estonia, South Korea and Nigeria, Krishna demonstrates that the same principle extends beyond football. Jamaica’s dominance in sprinting, Kenya’s success in marathon running and Estonia’s emergence as a global technology hub all stem from sustained investments in institutions, education, training and opportunity rather than isolated individual brilliance.

The book argues that World Cups are rarely won by talent alone. Instead, nations that consistently succeed are those that have patiently built talent pipelines and support systems over generations.

With growing conversations around sports development and nation-building, Why Kenyans Win Marathons and Estonians Build Unicorns presents a timely case for investing in systems that enable excellence to flourish. Krishna’s central message is clear: lasting success is not a matter of chance but the outcome of deliberate and sustained investments in opportunity.